Market research forecasts are almost never correct, but decent ones do give a good sense for how things are likely to change in various industries. I’ve found that Pike Research does a pretty good job of conducting cleantech market research reports. Its latest is on the growth of electric vehicle (EV) charging stations around the world.
Of course, the first generation of modern, mass-market electric vehicles (if you don’t count the aborted generation from a couple decades ago) just started rolling off the assembly lines in the past few years. In the past year or so, there has been a big increase in the number of companies working on or even already selling electric vehicles. And most projections indicate that we are just getting started.
My bet is that EVs will boom substantially in the coming decade. With that growth, of course, comes growth in related components… such as EV charging stations.
Pike Research projects that electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) will increase from under 200,000 in 2012 to almost 2.4 million in 2020 — big jump.
Furthermore: “By 2020, the study concludes, 11.4 million EV charging stations will be in operation worldwide.”
A mix of government incentives and procurement, entrepreneurial development and cost reductions, and increasing consumer demand will be the driving (no pun intended) force behind this EV charging station growth.
Here’s more from Pike Research, which gives you a sense for some of the assumptions included in the forecast: “A key factor in the split between residential and commercial EVSE sales, Jerram adds, is the percentage of PEV owners who have access to home charging. The report forecasts that the market for commercial charging equipment will grow at a faster rate than that for residential charging equipment. According to the report, 2013 will be a critical year since the PEV market will be transitioning from early adopters in regions such as North America, where consumers are more likely to have a secured parking spot in which to install a charger, to a broader base of consumers living in multi-family dwellings, leading to greater growth in the sales of commercial EVSE than in residential units.”
The report, if you want to read more, is titled “Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment.”
And here are a few more details about the report if you want to read more here before clicking over: “Including market analysis and forecasts for residential, workplace, public, and private EVSE, the report covers the development of fast charging over the past year and forecasts direct-current charging sales. It also forecasts the growth of wireless charging equipment, set to become commercially available in the 2013–2015 timeframe. EVSE forecasts cover the major regions of the world and include breakouts for key adopter countries including the United States, Canada, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, Korea, and Israel. The report also includes profiles of more than 40 industry players, including EVSE manufacturers and service providers, their suppliers, vehicle OEMs, and utilities. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Pike Research website.”
What do you think? 11 million EV charging stations by 2020? More? Fewer?