To a large degree modern industrial agriculture owes its success to the various forms of disease-resistant crops that have been developed over the past 50 or so years. But the development of new disease resistant crops has been slowing down in recent years, for a variety of reasons. And now, a global team of researchers led by the University of Minnesota is warning that without a large increase in such research, that new strains of a deadly fungal disease may have significant and possibly devastating effects of the global food supply, in the near future.
The new research, published in the journal Science, “examines how Ug99 — new virulent forms of stem rust first found in Uganda in 1999 — could continue its movement across Africa, the Middle East and southwest Asia. It threatens food supplies for millions of people who depend on wheat and other small grains. Scientists have developed new wheat varieties with some resistance to the deadly disease, but the disease evolves and mutates into new forms, requiring new resistant varieties to be developed.”
“Several projects to develop resistance to Ug99 are under way, including an international consortium known as the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative, a $26 million, five-year effort funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. But the University of Minnesota economists estimate that as much as $51 million a year is needed. They arrived at that conclusion by estimating the economic losses that would likely have occurred without the 20th century research that kept earlier variations of the disease at bay.”
“Failing to increase and sustain investments in rust-resistance research is tantamount to accepting an increase in the risk of yield losses on one of the world’s food staples,” said Phil Pardey, leader of the research team and a professor of applied economics at the University of Minnesota. “Spending on stem rust research has been inadequate for some time, and increased research investment must be sustained over the long haul if science is to keep on top of these ever-evolving crop diseases.”
Modern industrial agriculture is currently facing a number of significant problems, in addition to those problems that accompany all forms of agriculture. It’s an open question how long our currently very “productive” system will be able to keep going at its current rate. Problems such as this, and climate change, will no doubt factor into whatever happens in the future with regards to our agricultural system.