The World Meteorological Association (WMO) announced on Monday that the El Niño and La Niña climate patterns are unlikely to show themselves during the first half of 2013.
Currently, neutral conditions continue in the tropical Pacific, and model forecasts and expert opinions currently predict the chance of El Niño and La Niña developing during the first half of 2013 is low.
The WMO alongside the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to monitor conditions in the Pacific Basin and provide further outlooks as the need arises.
Below is copied the specific conditions update for the Pacific Basin as provided by the WMO this week;
During the last 10 months El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators in the tropical Pacific (e.g., tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, sea level pressure, cloudiness and trade winds) have generally been at neutral levels, indicating neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions have been present. From July to October 2012, sea surface temperatures increased to a borderline El Niño level, but the atmospheric characteristics of El Niño failed to develop and the ocean-atmosphere system as a whole remained in a neutral state. Since November the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled, and although the first two months of 2013 showed patterns of ocean temperatures that approached borderlineLa Niña levels, and cloudiness and trade winds that also leaned towards La Niña conditions, the tendency has been weak and the state of the ocean-atmosphere system as a whole continued to be neutral.
El Niño and La Niña climate patterns are responsible for much of the flooding that has hit Australia’s east coast over the past decade, as well as drought conditions throughout the United States.