{"id":31841,"date":"2012-08-13T02:00:45","date_gmt":"2012-08-13T06:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/planetsave.com\/?p=31841"},"modified":"2012-08-13T02:00:45","modified_gmt":"2012-08-13T06:00:45","slug":"noaa-increases-hurricane-season-predictions-despite-oncoming-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/articles\/noaa-increases-hurricane-season-predictions-despite-oncoming-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"NOAA Increases Hurricane Season Predictions Despite Oncoming El Nino"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Atlantic hurricane season has already gotten off to a flyer, with six named storms already, and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, may have a pretty hectic second half as well. As a result, the NOAA have updated their hurricane season outlook.<\/p>\n<p>The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but has increased the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreased the chance of a below-normal season to just 15 percent. (<a href=\"http:\/\/planetsave.com\/2012\/05\/28\/noaa-predicts-oncoming-hurricane-seasons\/\" target=\"_blank\">The original stats the NOAA released can be found here<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31845\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31845\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/planetsave.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/1137v1_20120807-Ernesto-1815z.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-31845\" title=\"1137v1_20120807-Ernesto-1815z\" src=\"http:\/\/planetsave.com\/files\/2012\/08\/1137v1_20120807-Ernesto-1815z-490x275.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"490\" height=\"275\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31845\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Satellite image of Hurricane Ernesto taken on Aug. 7, 2012 in the Gulf of Mexico.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season \u2013 June 1 to November 30 \u2013 NOAA\u2019s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li>12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:<\/li>\n<li>5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:<\/li>\n<li>2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is an update on the predictions released in late May of this year of;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a09-15 named storms<\/li>\n<li>4-8 hurricanes<\/li>\n<li>1-3 major hurricanes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>An average Atlantic hurricane season will produce 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,\u201d said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. \u201cThese conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Surprisingly, NOAA is also predicting\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o will likely develop in August or September of this year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don\u2019t expect El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s influence until later in the season,\u201d Bell said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have a long way to go until the end of the season, and we shouldn\u2019t let our guard down,\u201d said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service.\u00a0 \u201cHurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding as we saw a year ago in the Northeast with Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Even people who live hundreds of miles from the coast need to remain vigilant through the remainder of the season.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is never too early to prepare for a hurricane,\u201d said Tim Manning, FEMA\u2019s deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. \u201cWe are in the middle of hurricane season and now is the time to get ready. There are easy steps you can take to get yourself and your family prepared. Visit\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ready.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">www.ready.gov<\/a>\u00a0to learn more.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaanews.noaa.gov\/stories2012\/20120809_atlantic_hurricane_season_update.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Atlantic hurricane season has already gotten off to a flyer, with six named storms already, and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, may have a pretty hectic second half as well. As a result, the NOAA have updated their hurricane season outlook. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,25],"tags":[17911,21495,23706,24926,28271,33375,36628],"spectra_custom_meta":{"_rpuplugin_enabled":["yes"],"fb_social_plugin_settings_box_send":["default"],"fb_social_plugin_settings_box_recommendations_bar":["default"],"fb_author_message":[""],"fb_status_messages":["a:0:{}"],"dsq_thread_id":["901986035"],"penci_post_views_count":["697"],"penci_post_week_views_count":["5"],"penci_post_month_views_count":["15"],"dpsp_networks_shares":["a:3:{s:8:\"facebook\";i:0;s:9:\"pinterest\";i:0;s:8:\"linkedin\";i:0;}"],"dpsp_networks_shares_total":["0"],"dpsp_networks_shares_last_updated":["1567110509"],"rank_math_news_sitemap_robots":["index"],"rank_math_robots":["a:1:{i:0;s:5:\"index\";}"],"rank_math_og_content_image":["a:2:{s:5:\"check\";s:32:\"9ab6d32bb1f34860774d4a3d76d328ce\";s:6:\"images\";a:1:{i:0;s:77:\"http:\/\/planetsave.com\/files\/2012\/08\/1137v1_20120807-Ernesto-1815z-490x275.png\";}}"],"_uag_page_assets":["a:9:{s:3:\"css\";s:263:\".uag-blocks-common-selector{z-index:var(--z-index-desktop) !important}@media (max-width: 976px){.uag-blocks-common-selector{z-index:var(--z-index-tablet) !important}}@media (max-width: 767px){.uag-blocks-common-selector{z-index:var(--z-index-mobile) !important}}\n\";s:2:\"js\";s:0:\"\";s:18:\"current_block_list\";a:4:{i:0;s:10:\"core\/image\";i:1;s:14:\"core\/paragraph\";i:2;s:12:\"core\/heading\";i:3;s:17:\"core\/latest-posts\";}s:8:\"uag_flag\";b:0;s:11:\"uag_version\";s:10:\"1714089639\";s:6:\"gfonts\";a:0:{}s:10:\"gfonts_url\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"gfonts_files\";a:0:{}s:14:\"uag_faq_layout\";b:0;}"],"_uag_css_file_name":["uag-css-31841.css"]},"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Joshua S Hill","author_link":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/author\/joshuashill\/"},"uagb_comment_info":3,"uagb_excerpt":"The Atlantic hurricane season has already gotten off to a flyer, with six named storms already, and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, may have a pretty hectic second half as well. As a result, the NOAA have updated their hurricane season outlook. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31841"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31841\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}