<\/strong><\/p>\n Climate change is likely to be the predominant scientific, economic, political and moral issue of the 21st century<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Right now, we\u2019re headed towards an ice-free planet.\u00a0 That takes us through the Eemian interglacial period of about 130,000 years ago when sea levels were 15 to 20 feet higher, when temperatures had been thought to be about 1\u00b0C warmer than today.\u00a0 Then we go back to the \u201cearly Pliocene, when sea level was about 25 m [82 feet] higher than today,\u201d as NASA\u2019s James Hansen and Makiko Sato explain in a new draft paper, \u201cPaleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n The question is how much warmer was it in the Eemian and early Pliocene than today \u2014 and how fast can the great ice sheets disintegrate?<\/p>\n We already know we\u2019re at CO2 levels that risk catastrophe if they are sustained or exceeded for any extended period of time (see\u00a0Science<\/em>: CO2 levels haven\u2019t been this high for 15 million years, when it was 5\u00b0 to 10\u00b0F warmer and seas were 75 to 120 feet higher<\/a>).<\/p>\n Hansen and Sato go further, saying we\u2019re actually at or very near the highest temperatures of the current Holocene interglacial \u2014 the last 12,000 years of relatively stable climate that has made modern civilization possible….<\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n Scientists who study the oceans say the effects of climate change are already being seen in the world’s oceans. From acidification and warming temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice loss, Ira Flatow and guests look at how the oceans are changing with changes in climate….<\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n Surface temperature anomalies for the period 17 December 2010 to 15 January 2011 show impressive warmth across the Canadian Arctic\u2026.<\/p>\n The largest anomalies here exceed 21\u00b0C (37.8\u00b0F) above average, which are very large values to be sustained for an entire month.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n The disinformers and many in the media love to focus on where it is cold in the winter.\u00a0 It has been cool where many people live.\u00a0 Brr!<\/p>\n Unfortunately for homo sapiens, it\u2019s been staggeringly warm where the ice is.\u00a0 I\u2019ll do a post on Greenland shortly, but the NSF-sponsored researchers at UCAR\/NCAR\u00a0 have posted some\u00a0staggering data<\/a> on just how warm it has been in northern Canada:…<\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n I\u2019ll post Bastardi\u2019s reply to my bet \u2014 really, my acceptance of his wager \u2014 below.\u00a0 But first, let\u2019s look at his latest anti-science, anti-scientist video.<\/p>\n Joe Bastardi\u00a0is<\/a> \u201cthe chief hurricane and long-range forecaster at AccuWeather and a national bodybuilding competitor.\u201d\u00a0 He is also, based purely on the objective evidence, probably the\u00a0worst professional long-range forecaster on Earth.<\/a><\/p>\n Just last month, he\u00a0cooked the books in an official In-Accuweather video to smear some of the nation\u2019s leading scientists<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 I called for him to be fired and suggested referring to the company as InAccuweather until it does.\u00a0 Bastardi did ultimately retract the video but couldn\u2019t bring himself to admit that his accusation of fraud against NSIDC was\u00a0not merely <\/strong>completely<\/strong>unwarranted<\/strong> but totally inappropriate<\/strong> and in fact based in part on his simple misreading of a graph….<\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n Earlier this month I discussed how, \u201cExtreme weather events help drive food prices to record highs<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0 Since then I had lunch with one of the world\u2019s foremost authorities on food insecurity, Lester Brown, who has a terrific new book out,World on the Edge<\/em><\/a>, that I will blog on later.<\/p>\n I have been concerned about food security for a while (see links below).\u00a0 But Brown\u2019s work has persuaded me that genuinely destabilizing food insecurity may occur as soon as this decade \u2014 assuming 1 billion undernourished people isn\u2019t already a crisis.\u00a0 So I\u2019ve decided to add a new category, \u201cfood insecurity,\u201d to ClimateProgress and will be doing a series of posts in the coming weeks and months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Washington Post<\/em> had a\u00a0pretty good piece<\/a> on the subject Saturday, which I\u2019ll excerpt below.\u00a0 Significantly, they note, \u201cRussia has banned grain exports until the end of the 2011 harvest<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n As Brown explained to me, when the real food instability comes \u2014 if, for instance, the U.S. or Chinese breadbasket gets hit with the type of\u00a01000-year\u00a0100-year heat wave Russia just did \u2014 then the big grain producers will ban exports, to make sure their people are fed.\u00a0 In this scenario, if you don\u2019t have your own food supplies or an important export item to barter \u2014 particularly oil \u2014 your country is going to have big, big problems feeding its people….<\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n In 2010, global average temperature was 0.53\u00b0C (0.95\u00b0F) above the 1961-90 mean. This value is 0.01\u00b0C (0.02\u00b0F) above the nominal temperature in 2005, and 0.02\u00b0C (0.05\u00b0F) above 1998. The difference between the three years is less than the margin of uncertainty (\u00b1 0.09\u00b0C or \u00b1 0.16\u00b0F) in comparing the data\u2026.<\/p>\n Arctic sea-ice cover in December 2010 was the lowest on record.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The World Meteorological Organization\u00a0announcement<\/a> follows fast on the heels of the release ofNOAA and NASA data showing 2010 tied with 2005 for hottest year on record<\/a>.<\/p>\n WMO takes into account data from NASA, NOAA\u00a0and<\/strong> UK Meteorological Office Hadley Center, as well as the satellite data, which is why 1998 is so close.\u00a0 We now know that\u00a0Met Office Hadley Centre data\u00a0under<\/em>estimates the rate of recent global warming<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe 2010 data confirm the Earth\u2019s significant long-term warming trend,\u201d said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. \u201cThe ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46\u00b0C (0.83\u00b0F) above the 1961-1990 average, and are the highest ever recorded for a 10-year period since the beginning of instrumental climate records.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The WMO also discusses the extreme weather….<\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n [Climate scientists] need to redouble their efforts to make their arguments, their doubts, and the reasons for both their confidence and their concerns intelligible to the non-specialist citizen. They need to combat, piece by piece, the misrepresentations brought in support of attacks on their scientific integrity, and to show readers why the popular accounts and even the naming of \u201cClimategate\u201d are so misleading. And they need to explain why the expectations of science on which these accounts are based are similarly misleading\u2026.<\/p>\n What I am proposing is far from a solution. But if it encourages climate scientists to take the lead in breaking the current impasse, both because they are best equipped to take on the task, and because their responsibility as scientists obliges them to do so, it is at least a start.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n That\u2019s from the conclusion of a piece in\u00a0New Scientist<\/em><\/a> by Dr. Evelyn Fox Keller, emeritus professor of the history and philosophy of science at M.I.T.<\/p>\nChanging Climate Means Changing Oceans<\/a><\/h2>\n
Canada sees staggering mildness as planet\u2019s high-pressure record is \u201cobliterated\u201d<\/a><\/h2>\n
How many major scientific misstatements does Joe Bastardi have to make before In-Accuweather fires him as their chief long-range forecaster?<\/a><\/h2>\n
Washington Post<\/em>, Lester Brown explain how extreme weather, climate change drive record food prices.<\/a><\/h2>\n
World Meteorological Organization: 2010 equals record for world\u2019s hottest year and the \u201cdata confirm the Earth\u2019s significant long-term warming trend.\u201d<\/a><\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/planetsave.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Temps.gif\" "\\"Temps\\"")
<\/a><\/p>\nNew Scientist<\/em>: Redouble your efforts, climate scientists<\/a><\/h2>\n