A new study based on stock market expectations shows that global oil will run out 90 years before replacement technologies are ready to be put into effect.
Published Monday in the online form of the journal Environmental Science and Technology, the study theorizes that long-term investors are good predictors of whether and when new technologies will become commonplace.
“Our results suggest it will take a long time before renewable replacement fuels can be self-sustaining, at least from a market perspective,” said study author Debbie Niemeier, a UC Davis professor of civil and environmental engineering.
“Sophisticated investors tend to put considerable effort into collecting, processing and understanding information relevant to the future cash flows paid by securities,” said co-author Nataliya Malyshkina. “As a result, market forecasts of future events, representing consensus predictions of a large number of investors, tend to be relatively accurate.”