I’m really looking forward to summer, and not just because I’m the warm-weather type. This past winter’s snow and cold — and yes, we’ve had some unseasonably cool weather even in Florida, where I live — has filled the global warming deniers with more hot air than you’ll find in Bill O’Reilly’s sauna, and it’s time for the silliness to end.
There’s so much glee and gloating in the deniers’ headlines: “Central Plank of Global Warming Alarmism Discredited” (referring to MIT researcher Kerry Emanuel’s recent finding that climate change might not result in more and stronger hurricanes), “Uncommon Cold is an Antidote to Warming Fears” (it’s been cold this winter, hasn’t it?), “Global Warming Gets the Cold Freeze” (ditto). Yup, a budget crunch for snow-removal in Chicago and cold iguanas falling from trees in Florida sure proves all those hundreds of silly IPCC scientists wrong.
Except they don’t. One season does not a climate trend disprove. As Grist’s excellent guide on “How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic” points out, just because “It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga” doesn’t mean a thing. Cold today (or this week) is just weather. Climate is a different thing entirely.
Or, look at it this way: the long-term odds of tossing heads or tails on a penny always trend toward 50-50. The more times you toss, the closer to a 50-50 spread you’ll get. But toss a penny just 10 times, it can happen occasionally that you’ll get heads every time. That doesn’t mean the tails side of the coin has disappeared.
Two researchers from Tufts University made a similar analogy in a study last year on “Florida and Climate Change: The Costs of Inaction.” They put it like this: in a standard 52-card deck, the average number you’ll draw over time will approach seven. Add some extra high-score cards to the deck, though, and your average will be higher over time … even if you occasionally get a two- or three-card.
This past winter, for many, was a two- or three-card on the temperature scale, unusually low. Over the long term, though, the climate deck is still stacked for a higher average. And there’s no glee in that.
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Shirley Siluk Gregory
Shirley Siluk Gregory, a transplanted Chicagoan now living in Northwest Florida, represents the progressive half of Green Options' Red, Green and Blue segment. She holds a bachelor's degree in Geological Sciences from Northwestern University but graduated in 1984, just when the market for geologists was flatter than the Florida landscape. Just as well, though: she had little interest in spending her life either in a laboratory or, heaven forbid, an oil field. So, of course, she went into journalism. After extremely low-paying but fun and educational stints at several suburban Chicago weeklies and dailies, Shirley and her then-boyfriend/now-husband Scott found themselves displaced by a media buyout and spending the next several years working as freelancers. Among their credits: The Chicago Tribune, a publication for the manufactured-housing industry, and Web Hosting Magazine, a now-defunct publication that came and went with the dotcom era. Shirley's always been concerned about nature and conservation (and an avid pack-rat, as her family can attest to), but became even more rabidly interested in the environment primarily due to two factors: the growing signs that global warming was real and threatening, and the birth of her son, Noah, in 2003. Suddenly, the prospect of a world that might not be quite as habitable in 40 or 50 years took on a whole new, and personal, meaning. Living where she lives now also helped light the fire of Shirley's environmental awareness: her hometown was severely damaged by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, and beaten up again by Hurricane Dennis in 2005. That, and the fact that she and her family were vacationing in New Orleans until the day before Katrina -- and spent 12 hours driving home for a trip that normally takes 3 -- has made Shirley deeply appreciate how fragile our lifestyles are, and how dependent they are on sound management of natural resources and sustainable living practices. That's why she's become a passionate reader and writer about all things green and sustainable.
One Response to Climate Trends Trump ‘Silly Season’
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I don’t understand how this whole ‘Global Warming’ thing got so out of hand ! Can’t people think for themselves anymore ? Why do we delude ourselves into believing whatever the T.V. tells us ? The truth is the Television Industry is just like the Medical Industry – if anyone tells you ANYTHING they have NOT been appoved to tell you – their career will be over, and they will NEVER work in that field again ! PERIOD ! ~~~ Look at Dan Rather, just as ONE obvious example…